Alex Bregman’s performance, leadership: What Tigers target brings
Robert Ford, the radio voice of the Houston Astros, joins Evan to discuss what free agent Alex Bregman brings to the diamond and clubhouse.
- Alex Bregman, who signed with the Red Sox after reportedly turning down a larger offer from the Tigers, will face Detroit for the first time since choosing Boston.
- Bregman has opt-outs in his contract, leaving the possibility of him coming to Detroit in the future.
Finally, after three full months (89 days, to be precise), Detroit Tigers fans will finally get their chance to confront Public Enemy No. 1 in the Motor City — the man who ditched an adoring city in search of championship dreams during the winter …
Wait, Matthew Stafford is in town this week?
No, the Public Enemy No. 1 who has actually beaten a Detroit team …
Jalen Brunson? But isn’t he facing Bos-
No, we’re talking baseball and the Public Enemy No. 1 whose pursuit of the almighty dollar above all else was finally exposed …
Oh, the Yankees?
No, the …
The Dodgers?
No, the …
The Pirates?!?
No, we like them now that they’ve gone and put Donnie Kelly in charge.
So … who?
The guy A.J. Hinch practically raised from infancy? The guy who grabbed $40 million a year and an opt-out to join a team that didn’t even finish with a winning record last season, much less make the playoffs? Y’know … the guy playing third base in Beantown?
Ohhhh, Alex Bregman.
Hello, and welcome to The Purr-fect Game Newsletter, brought to you this week by the symbol $ (about 40 million of them, actually).
Yes, Alex Bregman: The former Astros star who was all set to hit the 313 — “We thought we were going to be in Detroit the entire time,” he said in March — until he pivoted to the 617 for a three-year, $120 million contract (complete with an opt-out after this season) with the Red Sox on Feb. 12.
And now, on May 12, he’ll take his first regular-season cuts against the squad from which he turned down a six-year, $171.5 million deal.
That’s a lot of numbers (and a lot of dough), but the question is: What are you gonna do about it?
Now, we’d never suggest Detroit fans boo any professional athlete (or any amateur athlete, for that matter). They’re just good folks doing their best to make a living in a competitive sporting environment.
Then again, that didn’t stop Lions fans when Stafford came to town, or Pistons fans when Brunson came to town (along with some other words), or even Red Wings fans when <checks notes> the Red Wings came to town.
We’re not quite Philly when it comes to rough welcomes for visitors, but as the Tigers’ anthem getting plenty of play during games these days notes, “Play us, play the city.”
And so, in the interest of the First Amendment — free speech certainly covers “boooooo,” or any other word that rhymes with it (Cue Jason Benetti: “Gee, there sure are a bunch of folks chanting for the Soo tonight, huh, Peaches?”) — let’s go over some pros and cons of booing Breg-lic Enemy No. 1.
Don’t boo Breggy: The Tigers never needed him anyway!
At least, that was the take in February from president of baseball operations Scott Harris. His name-dropping the full “Alex Bregman” more than half a dozen times — if he’d thrown in Breggy’s middle name, you might have thought the ex-Astro was a serial killer of people, rather than fastballs — made it clear that the Tigers would be just fine without Alexander David Bregman: “Was I disappointed?” Harris told reporters on Feb. 14. “I wouldn’t characterize my emotions that way.
“We want players who want to be here,” Harris added.
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Boooo, boooo, Breggy: Putting his mouth where his money is!
The first problem with that: The Tigers should also want players who rake, and on an individual level, Bregman is having a remarkable season already. His 0-for-4 performance in the BoSox’s 3-1 win over the Royals on May 11 dropped his OPS to a mere .951 — more than 100 points better than the next best qualified third baseman in the AL (the Royals’ Maikel Garcia at .845, with the Guardians’ José Ramírez third at .817).
That comes with a slash line of .311/.384/.567 — all three stats either a career high or second only to his 2019 in which he finished second in AL MVP voting. Oh, and he also has 15 doubles and 31 RBIs, good for second and third in the AL, respectively.
In short, the Red Sox are writing checks — plural or maybe just one; we don’t know what kind of deal they’ve got going — that Bregman’s bat is more than cashing. (As is his glove: Bregman is tied among third basemen for the AL lead in defensive runs saved, with three.)
Don’t boo Breggy: A hole at the hot corner!
But let’s go back to Harris in mid-February: “We made a very compelling offer to Alex Bregman, but he chose to sign somewhere else. That’s fine. We knew that was a possibility throughout this process and we planned for that outcome.”
Having a healthy Matt Vierling to bounce between the outfield and infield (to guard against Jace Jung’s, uh, issues) was likely a sizable part of that plan. Unfortunately for the Tigers, Vierling strained his right rotator cuff in the first week of spring training and has been on the injured list since the start of the season; he’s just now getting ready for a return.
(As Our Man Petzold reports, next week is a potential return point, if this week’s rehab stint in Toledo progresses.)
And in his absence? Well, it’s not pretty. Tigers third baseman have been among MLB’s least productive, with a 6.2 runs below average (batting and baserunning) mark that’s 24th out of 30 teams (per FanGraphs’ reckoning). (Though FG has the Tigers’ 3Bs tops in defense, at 5.8 runs above average.) The raw numbers are, somehow, worse, with Tigers 3Bs posting a .547 OPS — a reminder: that’s on-base percentage PLUS slugging — which is good (bad?) for 27th in the majors.
Perhaps picking on the Tigers’ paucity at the hot corner is nitpicking a bit too much, considering their offense is fourth in the majors at 5.22 runs a game. But consider, too, where they’d be with Bregman at the plate three times a game.
Boooo, boooo, Bregman: Flags fly forever!
As they say, “Scoreboard!” Or “Standings!” Whatever. Back to Harris, who noted in February: “We still have a clubhouse that just got to the postseason and just beat a team with Alex Bregman, so it clearly can be done.”
And 41 games into the season, it’s the Tigers at 26-15 sitting atop the American League (and a surprisingly successful AL Central) by 2½ games, while Bregman and his BoSox buddies are second in the AL East (though they’ve got a scant half-game lead for the final wild-card spot ahead of Bregman’s former squad in Houston).
Don’t boo Breggy: We might go through all this again this winter!
Remember, Bregman has an opt-out in his contract after his season (and next year, too, should he choose to return to Boston for 2026). And, barring a sudden breakthrough from Jung, or a move of Javier Báez back to the infield once Parker Meadows (remember him?) returns, or a quick position change and promotion for overall No. 26 prospect Kevin McGonigle, the Tigers seem likely to still have a hole at third base NEXT season.
They also reportedly made a solid impression with Bregman during their first courtship, with agent Scott Boras delivering a mid-February statement to the Freep that read, in part: “Alex has great respect for the Detroit organization, its great players, and its heralded manager,” Boras wrote. “He received a close-up view of the Tigers and their promising future during the 2024 playoffs, which is why he directed me to place Detroit on his priority list for free-agent meetings. Following very positive meetings, Alex directed me to convey offers to Detroit, which illustrates his high regard for the city and the franchise.”
Which, of course, brings us to the most important thing than can happen this week with the Red Sox visiting Comerica Park — more so even than whether Tigers fans actually boo the $40 Million (Breg)Man: Rack up a few big wins to show him what the future of the American League looks like.
Odds and evens
While we’re peering into the future (see what we did there?), let’s check in with the algorithms calculating the Tigers’ postseason chances this week:
Baseball Reference: This model is still counting the final 59 games of last season, which, still includes the 31-13 finish that gives the Tigers a 114-win ceiling. Still, bbref’s 1,000 simulations remain bullish on the Tigers — the average projected record remains at 97-65, with the Tigers still on pace for the top seed in the AL — at a 99.8% chance (up from 99.6% last week) of making the playoffs (and a 14% chance at winning the World Series, down from 17.6% last week).
Baseball Prospectus: PECOTA’s individual player projections merged with playing time projections and then a lot of simulations — again, so much math — still won’t let the Tigers shake the Twins; their projection of 89.6 is just a hair inside three games better than the Twins’ 86.8. But BP also has the Tigers up to 81.4% overall (up from 76.2% last week) and a 7.4% chance of a World Series victory (boosted, we suppose, because, as Our Man Windsor notes, the Tigers can’t face Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi in the Series).
FanGraphs: Their projections, based on 20,000 sims, have the Tigers making the postseason 85.7% of the time (up from 83.2% last week), with an average 90-72 record — five games better than projected runner-up Kansas City — and a 7.2% chance of a Series title. (FanGraphs still has the Pirates at just a 1.1% chance of making the postseason — guess the Don Kelly Effect takes time to kick in.)
Mark your calendars
As we’ve noted, the Red Sox are in town for three games — all 6:40 starts, good news for Tarik Skubal on May 14 — assuming the weather cooperates on May 13-14. After that, the Tigers have May 15 off and head over the border for a three-game set beginning May 16 with the Blue Jays and recently paid star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in Canada (where we’re certain nary a boo will pop up during the National Anthem).
Tigers birthdays this week: Lou Whitaker (68 on May 12), Kody Clemens (29 on May 15), A.J. Hinch (51 on May 15), Jack Morris (70 on May 16), Carlos Peña (47 on May 17), Ozzie Virgil (would have been 93 on May 17; died in 2024) and Joakim Soria (41 on May 18).
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TL;DR
But hey, if you do boo Breggy at some point during the series, just tell ’em you were celebrating Sweet Lou’s birthday.
Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com. Follow him on X (which used to be Twitter, y’know?) @theford and on BlueSky at @theford.bsky.social.
